Expected DA from the month of July is 107%-AICPIN FOR MAY RELEASED

No. 5/1/2014- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: the 30th June, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPHW) - May, 2014

The A1l-India CP1-IW for May, 2014 increased by 2 points and pegged at 244 (two hundred and forty four). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.83 per cent between April, 2014 and May, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.88 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 1.65 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Coconut Oil, Fish Fresh, Poultry, Milk, Onion, Vegetables & Fruits, Sugar, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPHW stood at 7.02 per cent for May, 2014 as compared to 7.08 per cent for the previous month and 10.68 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.66 per cent against 7.76 per cent of the previous month and 13.24 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Coimbatore recorded the maximum increase of 9 points followed by Bhavnagar (7 points) and Amritsar, Mercara and Tiruchirapally (6 points each). Among others, 5 points rise was registered in 7 centres, 4 points in 1 1 centres, 3 points in 13 centres, 2 points in 1 1 centres and 1 point in 10 centres. On the contrary, a decline of 5 points was reported in Giridih, 4 points in Chhindwara, 3 points in 2 centres, 2 points in 1 centre and 1 point in 7 centres. Indices of remaining 9 centres observed no change.

The indices of 35 centres are above and other 41 centres are below national average. The index of Vishakhapathnam and Chandigarh is at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPHW for the month of June, 2014 will be released on Thursday, 31 July, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www. labourbureau.gov.in.

(S.S. NEGI)
DIRECTOR


Source: http://labourbureau.gov.in/Press_IW_MAY2014.pdf



Expected

 DA/DR from July, 2014 after May, 2014 AICPIN may be 107%.

Estimation of Dearness Allowance/Dearness Relief expected from July, 2014 on the basis of May, 2014 AICPIN is in last step. After 3 points increase in last month All India Consumer Price Index Number [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for the month of May, 2014 increased by 2 points and pegged at 244 (two hundred and forty Four).  2 points increase in Index has giving now DA/DR may be 107% from July, 2014 with 7% increase.  Only more than 2 point unexpected decline in next months' AICPIN will stop DA/DR increase upto 106%.

Expectation of DA/DR for July, 2014 may analyzed with table is given below:-

Expec tation	Increase/  Decrease  Index	Month	Base  Year  2001  = 100	Total  of 12  Months	Twelve  monthly  Average	%  incre ase  over  115.76  for   DA	DA  announ ced or will  be  announ ced
	3	Jun,13	231	2648	220.67	90.62%	90%
DA from Jan,  2014 Orders DR  Order	4	Jul,13	235	2671	222.58	92.28%
	2	Aug,13	237	2694	224.50	93.94%
	1	Sep,13	238	2717	226.42	95.59%
	3	Oct,13	241	2741	228.42	97.32%
	2	Nov,13	243	2766	230.50	99.12%
	-4	Dec,13	239	2786	232.17	100.56%	100%
Jan+ AICPIN	-2	Jan,14	237	2802	233.50	101.71%
Feb+ AICPIN	1	Feb,14	238	2817	234.75	102.79%
Mar+ AICPIN	1	Mar,14	239	2832	236.00	103.87%
Apr+ AICPIN	3	Apr,14	242	2848	237.33	106.03%
May+ AICPIN	2	May,14	244	2864	238.67	106.17%
Expec tation for 107% - from (-) 1 to 4 points  increase decrease in  AICPIN	0	Jun,14	244	2877	239.75	107.11%	107%
	1	Jun,14	245	2878	239.83	107.18%
	2	Jun,14	246	2879	239.92	107.25%
	3	Jun,14	247	2880	240.00	107.33%
	4	Jun,14	248	2881	240.08	107.40%
	-1	Jun,14	243	2876	239.67	107.04%
	Expected DA/DR from July, 2014
for 106%	-2	Jun,14	242	2875	239.58	106.97%	106%
	Expected DA/DR from July, 2014

Input from http://karnmk.blogspot.in/2014/06/expected-da-from-july-2014-aicpin-for.html